ZestVlog

Spring football is here, and the realignment carousel never seems to end. But it all very much involves Group of 5 schools, and we got some very good questions. Let’s get into it.

Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.

Is the Group of 5, specifically the Mountain West, rooting for the Pac-12’s demise? Washington and Oregon to the Big Ten. Colorado, Utah, Arizonas to the Big 12. Cal, Stanford, Washington State and Oregon State to the Mountain West? — JT Bets

The Mountain West could be in a good or bad spot, and it’s impossible to predict what happens. I still think the Pac-12 will find a good enough TV deal and stay together for the time being, but if it doesn’t, I think one of two scenarios could happen:

1. The Pac-12 collapses all at once like the Southwest Conference. When that happened, four schools went to the Big Eight to become the Big 12, and the other four went to the WAC or Conference USA. In this scenario, maybe the Mountain West could add Washington State and Oregon State. I do not see Stanford and Cal having any interest in that.

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2. The Pac-12 loses teams little by little but can quickly backfill. This would be what happened to the Big East. It lost its top football schools to the ACC and Big 12, the non-football schools spun off, and the Big East backfilled with Conference USA schools and became the American Athletic Conference. In this scenario, maybe the zombie Pac-12 could raid the Mountain West for schools like San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State, UNLV and so on and stay together as a conference, but it would not be the old Pac-12.

Either way, the Mountain West probably isn’t rooting for the Pac-12’s demise, nor is anyone — outside of some Big 12 fans on Twitter. College sports’ charm lies in its regionality, even if TV executives and more and more commissioners don’t. If we have conferences for the Midwest, the Southeast and the middle of the country but no anchor out West, that hurts everyone in the long term. We should finally have a resolution on the Pac-12 in the coming weeks.

If the Pac-12 adds SDSU and SMU, does the AAC try to court Air Force, Boise and Colorado State again, or did that ship sail after they invited the six C-USA schools? And is Boise in particular more likely to consider it this time if the Pac-12 and Big 12 doors close for them? — Seth T.

Is it possible? Sure. The AAC is at 14 schools, but everyone sees conferences getting bigger down the road, and conferences are about to reach from coast to coast. Those three Mountain West schools would bring in more to the AAC than most of the C-USA schools did. The AAC tries to be aggressive. It would make complete sense to try.

But would those three schools be interested? One reason Boise State didn’t go to the AAC last time around was because of the cost to get out of the AAC if a Power 5 invitation did come. The same went for San Diego State. The Broncos believe they are best positioned for a Power 5 invite where they are right now, and with more disruption not far off, it might be a hard sell to leave the Mountain West. If the Pac-12 and Big 12 keep getting bigger, Group of 5 schools want to keep their options open, and it’s hard to say whether a door is ever closed.

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With the upcoming playoff format, is it possible for a Group of 5 team to become to CFB what Gonzaga is to CBB? — Justin B.

If we had this format 15 years ago, Boise State would’ve been primed to fill that exact role. It’s harder in football because of the nature of the sport and talent distribution — no G5 team will sign five-star recruits like Gonzaga can — but there is an opening.

With Cincinnati, Houston and UCF off to the Big 12, the top of the Group of 5 is wide open. Tulane likely enters 2023 in that top spot, but if Boise State can continue the momentum it had to finish the 2022 season, the Broncos should regularly be in that mix. They have the tradition and the brand name that still resonates, and school leadership absolutely sees this 12-team playoff as an opportunity to do exactly that (if the Broncos don’t land in a Power 5 league).

As a fan of one of the teams left behind in C-USA purgatory, what can we expect from the new-look C-USA? Liberty is the obvious newcomer that looks ready to compete, but I’m not sure what to expect from any of these other new teams with some of the usual contenders now out of the picture. — Jonathan C.

I expect Western Kentucky and Liberty to be at the top of the league next year. Both have been solid programs for years. WKU is bringing back the nation’s leading passer and several top players, and Liberty has a lot of talent and a new coach in Jamey Chadwell who gets the most out of it. From track record to resources, these two have the highest ceilings.

Middle Tennessee continues to be an annual bowl team. Maybe the new look of the conference can make the Blue Raiders a conference contender. New Mexico State is also coming off one of its best seasons in decades in Jerry Kill’s first year.

I don’t know what to expect from the FCS additions. Sam Houston has been one of the top FCS teams, winning the spring 2021 national championship, but the program redshirted a lot of the roster in 2022 to get ready for the move up and because it was ineligible for the FCS postseason. Jacksonville State, meanwhile, went 9-2 in Rich Rodriguez’s first season but was also postseason-ineligible. Those are two teams I plan to dive deeper into this offseason.

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Do the defensive coordinator hirings at Tulane illustrate a continued emphasis on and investment in athletics/football? Hiring the top DC in the Group of 5 (Lance Guidry), losing him, then replacing him with the No. 2 DC in the Group of 5 (Shiel Wood) has to require financial backing. — Max F.

Now that the defensive coordinator musical chairs seems to have stopped, did Tulane somehow come out better in the end? With retention and the new influx of talent, is it an inside track to a New Year’s Six bowl? (I can’t believe I just typed that…) — Christian W.

Can we say Tulane has become a Group of 5 destination? I think we have to. It started with head coach Willie Fritz sticking with the Green Wave despite strong interest from Georgia Tech. As for the staff, defensive coordinator Chris Hampton took the Green Wave defense from No. 114 in points allowed per game in 2021 to No. 32 last year, and he got hired away by Oregon for his work. Fritz then hired Guidry, who produced the No. 6 scoring defense at Marshall a year ago (he is also a Louisiana native with deep ties to the state). Guidry left for the Miami DC job not long after that, and Fritz replaced him with Shiel Wood, who helped Troy produce the No. 8 scoring defense on a top-25 team.

So yeah, coaches want to come to Tulane right now. So do players. The Green Wave signed the No. 5 Group of 5 recruiting class (including transfers), and quarterback Michael Pratt opted to return despite Power 5 transfer interest.

Athletic director Troy Dannen said in January that the football locker room will be renovated this spring, and he anticipates having an on-campus practice bubble by 2024. Tulane knows it needs to fundraise coming off the Cotton Bowl, and this is the moment to enact some changes. There’s more money available, the Fear The Wave Collective is among the best in the G5, and it’s all starting to pay off.

After a rough season, Appalachian State has replaced the strength coach, OC and DC with former App guys. Will it be enough to turn it around? If it doesn’t work, could this seat get hot? — Jonathan E.

Last year’s 6-6 record without a bowl game was simply unacceptable, and as a longtime App guy, head coach Shawn Clark knows that as well as anyone. He told me a year ago that the 2021 season with a division title but no conference title wasn’t good enough. Clark’s contract was extended through 2026 after the 2021 season, so I wouldn’t make it a hot seat yet, but improvement is needed. The offseason of change started quickly with a defensive coordinator change, as Dale Jones left the program after spending 26 of the past 27 years at App State.

Offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay did a good job in his lone season and was hired away by Mississippi State, so that was a different situation. Back from Miami comes Frank Ponce, who spent 2013-18 and 2021 at App. The Mountaineers need to get back to being an elite rushing team, and I suspect that’ll be the emphasis this year. App State was top-15 nationally in yards per carry every year from 2014 to 2020, but not in the past two years (42nd in 2021, 21st in 2022).

This team is still loaded at running back, even without Camerun Peoples, so we’ll see whether the Mountaineers can get back to that identity. Perhaps the record-breaking ability of Chase Brice at quarterback got the offense away from what it has historically done so well.

Do you have any updates on the WAC and its attempted move to FBS? Would it still do it if the other FBS conferences refuse to share playoff revenue with it? Also, what is its current TV deal? ESPN+ and regional sports networks? — Trent Y.

I don’t expect anything imminent for FBS purposes regarding the WAC-ASUN joint venture. As I mentioned in the last mailbag, the primary goal is to get certified as a football-only FCS conference so it can continue with its playoff auto bid. A potential FBS move would come after that. Executive director Oliver Luck is going to visit all the schools over the next few months for an audit to determine who is well positioned to move up and who isn’t. I can tell you no Group of 5 conference has any interest in sharing CFP money, and even the WAC-ASUN people don’t know what is possible here. It’s all still very TBD. As for TV, most of their games were on ESPN+.

(Photo: Loren Orr / Getty Images)

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